1 Сведения об операции Илэйн Бромили получены из бесед с Мартином, Викторией и Адамом Бромили, отчета о независимом расследовании доктора Майкла Хармера и других документов.
2 Daniel Coyle. The Talent Code: Greatness Isn’t Born. It’s Grown. Here’s How. N. Y.: Random House, 2009.
3 http://www.iata.org/publications/Documents/iata-safety-report-2013. pdf.
4 http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/Pages/2015–03–09–01.aspx.
5 Члены IATA. http://www.iata.org/pressroom/facts_figures/fact_sheets/ Documents/safety-fact-sheet.pdf.
6 To Err Is Human, публикация Института медицины: https://www.iom.edu/~/media/Files/Report%20Files/1999/To-Err-is-Human/To%20 Err%20is%20Human%201999 %20 %20report%20brief.pdf.
7 Peter I. Buerhaus. Lucian Leape on the Causes and Prevention of Errors and Adverse Events in Health Care // Journal of Nursing Scholarship. 2007. June.
8 http://journals.lww.com/journalpatientsafety/Fulltext/2013/09000/ A New,_Evidence_based_Estimate_of_Patient_Harms.2.aspx.
9 http://www.c-span.org/video/?320495–1/hearing-patient-safety.
10 Joe Graedon, Teresa Graedon. Top Screwups Doctors Make and How to Avoid Them. N. Y.: Harmony, 2012.
11 http://www.c-span.org/video/?320495–1/hearing-patient-safety.
12 Там же.
13 A Safer Place for Patients: Learning to Improve Patient Safety. Отчет Государственного контроля, 3 ноября 2005 г.
14 Atul Gawande. Complications: A Surgeon’s Notes on an Imperfect Science. L.: Profile, 2008.
15 http://www.who.int/classifications/help/icdfaq/en/.
16 Статья CBS News, 12 апреля 2014 г. См.: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/ ferry-captains-acts-murderous-south-korean-president/.
17 Сидни Деккер, лекция в Брисбейне: https://vimeo.com/102167635.
18 Gerry Greenstone. The History of Bloodletting // British Columbia Medical Journal. 2010. January.
19 Nancy Berlinger. After Harm: Medical Error and the Ethics of Forgiveness. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2007.
20 В сравнении с аналогичными центрами по соседству его расходы на судопроизводство были меньше, чем у всех конкурентов, за исключением семи. Но см. также: Dr. David Studdert et al. Disclosure of Medical Injury to Patients // Health Affairs. Vol. 26. 2007. № 1. P. 215–226.
21 C. A. Vincent, M. Young, A. Phillips. Why Do People Sue Doctors? A Study of Patients and Relatives Taking Legal Action // Lancet. Vol. 343. 1994. P. 1609–1613.
22 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18981794.
23 David Hilfiker. Facing Our Mistakes // New England Journal of Medicine. Vol. 310. 1984. № 2. P. 118–122.
24 James Reason. A Life in Error: From Little Slips to Big Disasters.Burlington, VT: Ashgate, 2013.
25 Rae M. Lamb. Hospital Disclosure Practices: Results of a National Survey // Health Affairs. Vol. 22. 2003. № 2. P. 73–83.
26 http://www.chron.com/news/article/Detective-work-required-to-un co-ver-errors-1709000.php.
27 J. L. Vincent. Information in the ICU: Are We Being Honest with Patients? The Results of a European Questionnaire // Intensive Care Medicine. 1998. № 24 (12). P. 1251–1256.
28 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21471476.
29 http://www.nytimes.com/2002/10/15/us/alphonse-chapanis-dies-at-85-was-a-founder-of-ergonomics.html.
30 Kim Phong L. Vu and Robert Proctor. Handbook of Human Factors in Web Design, 2nd ed. N. Y.: CRC Press, 2004.
31 Информация об этом полете взята из отчета Национального комитета по безопасности на транспорте (28 декабря 1978 г.), фильма телевизионного цикла Mayday «Focused on Failure», различных СМИ и многочисленных бесед со следователями и пилотами.
32 http://www.eurohoc.org/task/task_docs/CAPAP2002_02.pdf.
33 http://www.airdisaster.com/reports/ntsb/AAR78–08.pdf.
34 http://www.airdisaster.com/reports/ntsb/AAR73–14.pdf.
35 Malcolm Gladwell. Outliers: The Story of Success. N. Y.: Penguin, 2009.
36 По той же причине многие научные открытия были сделаны «случайно» – пенициллин и т. п.
37 J. Vanden Bos et al. The $17,1 Billion Problem: The Annual Cost of Measurable Medical Errors // Health Affairs. Vol. 30. 2011. № 4. P. 596–603.
38 Сидни Деккер из Университета Гриффита прочел немало лекций о том, как развивались за последние полтора века модели, позволяющие понять причины катастрофы.
39 Oskar Morgenstern. Abraham Wald obituary, Econometrica. 1951. October.
40 H. Freeman. Abraham Wald // D. L. Sills (ed.) International Encyclopedia of Social Sciences. Vol. 16. 1968. P. 435–438.
41 Karl Menger. The Formative Years of Abraham Wald and His Work in Geometry // Annals of Mathematical Statistics. Vol. 23. 1952. № 1. P. 14–20.
42 http://youarenotsosmart.com/tag/abraham-wald/.
43 Там же.
44 Там же.
45 https://hbr.org/2011/04/strategies-for-learning-from-failure.
46 http://cna.org/sites/default/files/research/0204320000.pdf.
47 Oskar Morgenstern. Abraham Wald obituary.
48 Информация о рейсе United 1549 взята из отчета следственной группы (http://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/AccidentReports/Reports/ AAR1003.pdf), двух документальных фильмов о полете из телевизионного цикла Mayday (канал National Geographic) и многочисленных статей в СМИ.
49 h tt p://content.time.com/time/sp e cials/p ackage s/article/ 0,28804,1894410_1894289_1894258,00.html.
50 Karl Popper. Conjectures and Refutations: The Growth of Scientific Knowledge. L.: Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1963. (На рус. яз.: Поппер К. Предположения и опровержения. Рост научного знания. М., 2008. Перевод А. Л. Никифорова, Г. А. Новичковой.)
51 История была немного сложнее. Эксперимент лишь частично подтвердил теорию Эйнштейна. Понадобились новые эксперименты, чтобы ученое сообщество согласилось с тем, что небесные тела притягивают свет.
52 См.: Karl Popper. Conjectures and Refutations.
53 Philip H. Gosse. Omphalos: An Attempt to Untie the Geological Knot. Rochester, NY: Scholar’s Choice, 2015.
54 Karl Popper. Conjectures and Refutations. Перевод А. Л. Никифорова, Г. А. Новичковой.
55 Этот пример приведен в кн.: Magee B. Philosophy and the Real World: An Introduction to Karl Popper, Chicago: Open Court Publishing, 1985.
56 Nassim N. Taleb. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. N. Y.: Penguin, 2008. (На рус. яз.: Талеб Н. Н. Черный лебедь. Под знаком непредсказуемости. 2-е изд., доп. М.: КоЛибри, Азбука-Аттикус, 2014.)
57 Daniel Kahneman and Gary Klein. Conditions for Intuitive Expertise, Failure to Disagree // American Psychologist. Vol. 64. 2009. № 6. P. 515–526.
58 Там же.
59 K. Anders Ericsson (ed.). Development of Professional Expertise: Toward Measurement of Expert Performance and Design of Optimal Learning Environments. N. Y.: Cambridge University Press, 2009.
60 Такую систему рекомендовал К. Андерс Эрикссон в книге Development of Professional Expertise (см. выше). Похожая система, базирующаяся на объективной обратной связи, была предложена психотерапевтом Теренсом Трейси и его коллегами из Аризонского университета. См.: Tracey T. et al. Expertise in Psychotherapy: An Elusive Goal? // American Psychologist. Vol. 69. 2014. № 3. P. 218–229.
61 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/nhs/10940874/Can-the-Japanese-car-factory-methods-that-transformed-a-Seattle-hospital-work-on-the-NHS. html?mobile=basic.
62 Там же.
63 Там же.
64 Charles Kenney. Transforming Health Care: Virginia Mason Medical Center’s Pursuit of the Perfect Patient Experience. L.: Productivity Press, 2010.
65 http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/18/us/18apology.html?page-wanted=all.
66 http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/18/us/18apology.html?page-wanted=print&_r=0.
67 Питер Проновост, лекция о системной безопасности в Университете Джонса Хопкинса.
68 http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/09/science/09conv.html.
69 Peter Pronovost. Safe Patients, Smart Hospitals: How One Doctor’s Checklist Can Help Us Change Health Care from the Inside Out. N. Y.: Plume, 2004.
70 Atul Gawande. Complications.
71 Отчет Фрэнсиса: http://www.midstaffspublicinquiry.com/sites/default/ files/report/Executive%20summary.pdf.
72 Отчет Керкапа: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/ uploads/attachment_data/file/408480/47487_MBI_Accessible_v0.1.pdf.
73 Отчет парламентского комитета: http://www.publications.parliament. uk/pa/cm201415/cmselect/cmpubadm/886/88602.htm.
74 http://www.deadbymistake.com/.
75 Michael Gillam et al. «The Health Care Singularity and the Age of Semantic Medicine» in The Fourth Paradigm: Data-Intensive Scientific Discovery (Microsoft, 2009).
76 Atul Gawande. The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right. L.: Profile, 2010.
77 Atul Gawande. Complications.
78 http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/26/health/26autopsy.html?page-wanted=all&_r=0.
79 Atul Gawande. Complications.
80 http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/criminal-justice/post-mor tem/ more-deaths-go-unchecked-as-autopsy-rate-falls-to-miserably-low-levels/.
81 James Reason. A Life in Error: From Little Slips to Big Disasters. Burlington, VT: Ashgate, 2013.
82 http://www.chfg.org/resources/07_qrt04/Anonymous_Report_Verdict_ and_Corrected_Timeline_Oct_07.pdf.
83 William Blackstone. Commentaries on the Laws of England. L.: Forgotten Books, 2012.
84 Edwin M. Borchard. Convicting the Innocent and State Indemnity for Errors of Criminal Justice. Seattle: Justice Institute, 2013.
85 Там же.
86 Carole McCartney. Building Institutions to Address Miscarriages of Justice in England and Wales: Mission Accomplished? // University of Cincinnati Law Review. Vol. 80. 2013. № 4.
87 Более подробно о роли ДНК в уголовном правосудии см.: Jim Dwyer, Barry Scheck, and Peter Neufeld. Actual Innocence: When Justice Goes Wrong and How to Make It Right. N. Y.: New American Library, 2003; а также David Lazer et al. DNA and the Criminal Justice System: The Technology of Justice. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2004.
88 http://www.nhs.uk/Conditions/Blood-groups/Pages/Introductions.aspx.
89 Цит. по: Jim Dwyer, Barry Scheck, Peter Neufeld. Actual Innocence.
90 Подробнее про ошибки, связанные с трактовкой анализа очень маленьких фрагментов ДНК, см.: David Bentley QC. DNA and Case Preparation // Law Society Gazette. 2015. January.
91 Информация о судебных ошибках взята из материалов проекта «Невиновность», государственных баз данных и различных бесед.
92 Информация о Майкле Ширли взята из судебных документов, отчетов и двух бесед с его адвокатом Анитой Бромли.
93 Проект «Невиновность».
94 Samuel R. Gross et al. Exonerations in the United States, 1989 through 2003 // Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology. Vol. 95. 2005. № 2. P. 523–560.
95 Dwyer, Scheck, Neufeld. Actual Innocence.
96 Leon Festinger, Henry Riecken and Stanley Schachter. When Prophecy Fails. Eastford, CT: Martino Fine Books, 2009.
97 Результаты опроса взяты из: Carol Tavris, Elliot Aronson, Mistakes Were Made (but Not by Me): Why We Justify Foolish Beliefs, Bad Decisions and Hurtful Acts. L.: Pinter & Martin, 2013.
98 Elliot Aronson, Judson Mills. The Effect of Severity of Initiation on Liking for a Group // Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology. Vol. 59. 1959. September.
99 Carol Tavris, Elliot Aronson. Mistakes Were Made (but Not by Me).
100 Charles Lord, Lee Ross, Mark Lepper. Biased Assimilation and Attitude Polarisation: The Effects of Poor Theories on Subsequently Considered Evidence // Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. Vol. 37. 1979.
101 Сайт проекта «Невиновность».
102 Kathryn Schulz. Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margin of Error. L.: Portobello Books, 2011.
103 Цит. по: Tavris, Aronson, Mistakes Were Made (but Not by Me).
104 Schulz. Being Wrong.
105 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/27/magazine/dna-evidence-lake-county.html?_r=0.
106 Там же.
107 Dwyer, Scheck, Neufeld. Actual Innocence.
108 Там же.
109 Проект «Невиновность».
110 Dwyer, Scheck, Neufeld. Actual Innocence.
111 Tavris, Aronson. Mistakes Were Made (but Not by Me).
112 John Banja. Medical Errors and Medical Narcissism. Burlington, MA: Jones & Bartlett, 2005.
113 Там же.
114 Там же.
115 Jeff Stone and Nicholas C. Fernandez. How Behaviour Shapes Attitudes: Cognitive Dissonance Processes. In: William D. Crano and Radmila Prislin (ed.). Attitudes and Attitude Change. N. Y.: Psychology Press, 2013.
116 http://www.tonyblairoffice.org/news/entry/iraq-syria-and-the-middle-east-an-essay-by-tony-blair/.
117 http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/11/15/open-letter-to-ben-ber-nanke/.
118 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014–10–02/fed-critics-say-10-letter-warning-inflation-still-right.
119 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014–10–02/fed-critics-say-10-letter-warning-inflation-still-right.
120 Philip E. Tetlock. Expert Political Judgement: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2006.
121 Sydney Finkelstein. Why Smart Executives Fail: And What You Can Learn from Their Mistakes. N. Y.: Portfolio/Penguin, 2013.
122 Terrance Odean. Are Investors Reluctant to Admit Their Losses? // Journal of Finance. 1998. October.
123 Paul J. H. Schoemaker. Brilliant Mistakes: Finding Success on the Far Side of Failure. Philadelphia: Wharton Digital Press, 2011.
124 Karl Popper. The Poverty of Historicism, L.: Routledge, 2002. (На рус. яз.: Поппер К. Нищета историцизма. М., 1993. Перевод С. Кудриной.)
125 Описано в кн.: Pronovost. Safe Patients, Smart Hospitals.
126 David Hilfiker. Facing Our Mistakes // New England Journal of Medicine. Vol. 310. 1984. № 2. P. 118–122.
127 C. E. Milch et al. Voluntary Electronic Reporting of Medical Errors and Adverse Events: An Analysis of 92,547 Reports from 26 Acute Care Hospitals // Journal of General Internal Medicine. Vol. 21. 2006. № 2. P. 165–170.
128 Pronovost. Safe Patients, Smart Hospitals.
129 История Лысенко изложена в десятках статей и книг, включая: Valery N. Soyfer. Lysenko and the Tragedy of Soviet Science, New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press, 2006 и Nils Roll-Hansen. The Lysenko Effect: The Politics of Science. Amherst, NY: Prometheus Books, 2004.
130 http://tauruspet.med.yale.edu/staff/edm42/IUPUI-website/emorris.tar/ emorris/emorris/Ethics%2 °Course%2009/Journal%20articles/lysenko-nature-rev-genetics2001-nrg0901_723a.pdf.
131 Jasper Becker. Hungry Ghosts: Mao’s Secret Famine. N. Y.: Simon & Schuster, 1997.
132 http://www.haydenplanetarium.org/tyson/watch/2008/06/19/george-bush-and-star-names.
133 http://thefederalist.com/2014/09/16/another-day-another-quote-fab-ricated-by-neil-degrasse-tyson/.
134 http://thefederalist.com/2014/09/16/neil-tysons-fi nal-words-on-his-quote-fabrications-my-bad/
135 Giuliana Mazzoni and Amina Memon. Imagination Can Create False Autobiographical Memories // Psychological Science. Vol. 14. 2003. № 2. P. 186–188.
136 Elizabeth F. Loftus, John C. Palmer. Reconstruction of Automobile Destruction: An Example of the Interaction Between Language and Memory // Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior. Vol. 13. 1974. P. 585–589.
137 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4177082.stm.
138 Сайт проекта «Невиновность».
139 Gary L. Wells, Nancy K. Steblay, Jennifer E. Dysart. A Test of the Simultaneous vs Sequential Lineup Methods: An Initial Report of the AJS National Eyewitness Identification Field Studies // American Judicature So ciety. Стоит отметить, что стоимость проведения этих реформ сравнительно мала.
14 °Cайт проекта «Невиновность».
141 http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2002–09–29/news/0209290340_1_ jogger-case-jogger-attack-matias-reyes.
142 Dwyer, Scheck, Neufeld. Actual Innocence.
143 http://www.miamiherald.com/incoming/article1953372.html.
144 Committee on Identifying the Needs of the Forensic Science Community National Research Council, Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States, отчет, 2009.
145 http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/02/opinion/why-our-memory-fails-us.html.
146 Shai Danziger, Jonathan Levav, Liora Avnaim-Pesso. Extraneous Factors in Judicial Decisions // Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
147 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2011/04/11/ justice-is-served-but-more-so-after-lunch-how-food-breaks-sway-the-decisions-of-judges/#.VYaU80Yk-So.
148 http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2014–06–10/news/chi-dna-links-murder-and-rape-of-holly-staker-11-to-second-murder-8-years-la-ter-20140610_1_holly-staker-dna-evidence-dna-match.
149 Интервью взято автором.
150 http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-juan-rivera-shoes-met-20141210-story.html#page=1.
151 См. лекцию Стива Джонса: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=for_ WIKgdWg. See also Owen Barder: http://www.owen.org/blog/4018.
152 Включая Карла Поппера и Фридриха Хайека.
153 Tim Harford. Adapt: Why Success Always Starts with Failure. N. Y.: Little, Brown, 2011.
154 Paul Omerod, wn, 2011lway
155 Terence Kealey. The Economic Laws of Scientific Research. N. Y.: Palgrave Macmillan, 1996.
156 Taleb Nassim Nicholas. Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder, N. Y.: Penguin, 2013. (На рус. яз.: Талеб Н. Н. Антихрупкость. М.: КоЛибри, Азбука-Аттикус, 2013. Перевод Н. Караева.)
157 См.: Jonah Lehrer. The Decisive Moment. Edinburgh: Canongate, 2007. P. 47.
158 Daniel Kahneman. Thinking, Fast and Slow. N. Y.: Penguin, 2012. (На рус. яз.: Канеман Д. Думай медленно… решай быстро. М., 2013. Перевод А. Андреева, Ю. Деглиной и Н. Парфеновой.)
159 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27579790.
160 Peter Sims. Little Bets: How Breakthrough Ideas Emerge from Small Discoveries. N. Y.: Random House Business, 2012.
161 Там же.
162 Ryan Babineaux, John Krumboltz. Fail Fast, Fail Often: How Losing Can Help You Win. N. Y.: Tarcher, 2014.
163 David Bayles, Ted Orland. Art and Fear: Observations on the Perils (and Rewards) of Artmaking. N. Y.: Image Continuum Press, 2001.
164 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vY3OtMBCEKY.
165 Eric Ries. The Lean Startup: How Constant Innovation Creates Radically Successful Businesses. N. Y.: Portfolio/Penguin, 2011.
166 Там же.
167 Там же.
168 Jim Collins, Morten T. Hansen. Great by Choice: Uncertainty, Chaos and Luck – Why Some Thrive Despite Them All. N. Y.: Random House Business, 2011.
169 Peter Sims. Little Bets.
170 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27579790.
171 В беседе с автором.
172 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1470513/.
173 Данные проекта Disability Adjusted Life Years, оценка результатов продолжается.
174 Toby Ord. The Moral Imperative toward Cost-Effectiveness in Global Health // Center for Global Development. 2013. March.
175 http://lesswrong.com/lw/h6c/taking_charity_seriously_toby_ord_talk_ on_charity/.
176 https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/.
177 Scared Straight! («Испугаться и исправиться»), док. фильм, реж. Арнольд Шапиро, 1978 г.
178 «Испугаться и исправиться», комментарий Питера Фалька.
179 См.: James Finckenauer. Scared Straight: The Panacea Phenomenon Revisited. L.: Waveland Pv. Inc, 1998.
180 Peter W. Greenwood. Changing Lives: Delinquency Prevention as Crime Control Policy. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2007.
181 Цит. по фильму «Испугаться и исправиться».
182 Диаграммы взяты (с адаптацией) из Test, Learn Adapt © Crown, 2012 June, лицензировано на условиях Открытой правительственной лицензии. Воспроизводится с разрешения правообладателя.
183 Ben Goldacre. Bad Science. N. Y.: Harper Perennial, 2009.
184 Mark Henderson. The Geek Manifesto: Why Science Matters. N. Y.: Bantam Press, 2012.
185 См.: Ben Goldacre. Bad Pharma: How Drug Companies Mislead Doctors and Harm Patients. N. Y.: Faber & Faber, 2014.
186 Я благодарен Джиму Манци за то, что он изложил эти аргументы в своей книге Uncontrolled (N. Y.: Basic Books, 2012).
187 Jonathan Sheperd. The Production and Management of Evidence for Public Service Reform in Evidence and Policy.
188 Интервью взято автором.
189 James Finckenauer. Scared Straight.
190 Интервью взято автором.
191 Там же.
192 Там же.
193 См.: James Finckenauer, Scott O. Lilienfeld. Scientifically Unsupported and Supported Interventions for Childhood Psychopathology: A Summary // Pediatrics. Vol. 115. 2005. № 3. P. 761–764; а также Daniel P. Mears. Towards Rational and Evidence-based Crime Policy // Journal of Criminal Justice. Vol. 35. 2007. № 6. P. 667–682.
194 Приз Сильвермана.
195 http://reclaimingfutures.org/juvenile-justice-reform-scared-straight-facts-vs-hype.
196 A. Petrosino, C. Turpin-Petrosino, M. E. Hollis-Peel, J. G. Lavenberg. Scared Straight and Other Juvenile Awareness Programs for Preventing Juvenile Delinquency: A Systematic Review.
197 http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/23/nyregion/23solve.html.
198 http://www.northjersey.com/news/neighbor-sentenced-in-decades-old-ridgefield-park-murder-1.1238173.
199 Воспроизводится с разрешения Эстер Дюфло.
200 https://www.ted.com/speakers/esther_duflo.
201 Jeffrey Sachs. The End of Poverty: How We Can Make It Happen in Our Lifetime (N. Y.: Penguin, 2005).
202 William Easterly. The White Man’s Burden: Why the West’s Efforts to Aid the Rest Have Done So Much Ill and So Little Good. N. Y.: Penguin Books, 2007.
203 Tim Harford. Adapt: Why Success Always Starts with Failure. N. Y.: Little, Brown, 2011.
204 https://www.ted.com/speakers/esther_duflo.
205 Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo. Poor Economics: A Radical Rethinking of the Way to Fight Global Poverty. N. Y.: Penguin, 2012.
206 Alan G. Robinson, Sam Stern. Corporate Creativity: How Innovation and Improvement Actually Happen. Oakland, CA: Berrett-Koehler, 1998.
207 См.: Jim Manzi. Uncontrolled.
208 https://hbr.org/2009/02/how-to-design-smart-business-experiments.
209 Интервью взято автором.
210 Stephen J. Dubner and Steven D. Levitt. Think Like a Freak: How to Think Smarter About Almost Everything. L.: Allen Lane, 2014.
211 См. прекрасное эссе Эрика Риса: http://www.startuplessonslearned. com/2010/04/learning-is-better-than-optimization.html.
212 Эндрю Чэнь, ведущий блога о технологиях, замечательно доказал это в серии постов. Например: http://andrewchen.co/know-the-difference-between-data-informed-and-versus-data-driven/.
213 Интервью взято автором.
214 C. Nemeth, M. Personnaz, B. Personnaz, J. Goncalo. The Liberating Role of Conflict in Group Creativity: A Cross-Cultural Study // European Journal of Social Psychology. Vol. 34. 2004. P. 365–374. Подробнее см.: http://psychology.berkeley.edu/people/charlan-jeanne-nemeth#sthash. bVcF2wGG.dpuf.
215 Jonah Lehrer. Imagine: How Creativity Works. N. Y.: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2012.
216 C. Nemeth, J. Kwan. Originality of Word Associations as a Function of Majority v Minority Influence Processes // Social Psychology Quarterly. Vol. 48. 1985. P. 277–282.
217 См.: Jonah Lehrer. Imagine: How Creativity Works.
218 Он также внес вклад в развитие металлургии и производство высококачественных чернил.
219 David Eagleman. Incognito: The Secret Lives of the Brain. Edinburgh: Canongate, 2012.
220 Julia Cameron. The Artist’s Way: A Spiritual Path to Higher Creativity. L.: Pan, 1995.
22 1 Steven Johnson. Where Good Ideas Come From: The Seven Patterns of Innovation. N. Y.: Penguin, 2011.
222 Там же.
223 См.: http://www.alfredwallace.org.
224 Лоренц занимался специальной теорией относительности, Гильберт – общей.
225 См.: Ronald Cohn, Jesse Russell. Relativity Priority Dispute (VSD, 2012).
226 http://www.fundinguniverse.com/company-histories/hmi-industries-inc-history/.
227 Jim Collins, Morten T. Hansen. Great by Choice.
228 Gerard J. Tellis, Peter N. Golder. Will and Vision: How Latecomers Grow to Dominate Markets. Los Angeles: Figueroa Press, 2006.
229 Jim Collins and Morten T. Hansen. Great by Choice.
230 Там же.
231 Там же.
232 Ed Catmull. Creativity, Inc.: Overcoming the Unseen Forces That Stand in the Way of True Inspiration. N. Y.: Random House, 2014. (На рус. яз.: Кэтмелл Э. Корпорация гениев. Здесь и далее цит. в переводе «Альпина Паблишер», 2014.)
233 Там же.
234 R. G. Dorman. Dust Control and Cleaning. Amsterdam: Elsevier, 1973.
235 Информация об этом полете взята из: Zvi Lanir. The Reasonable Choice of Disaster // Journal of Strategic Studies, 1989.
236 John T. Phelps. Aerial Intrusions by Civil and Military Aircraft in Time of Peace // Military Law Review. Vol. 107. 1985. № 27.
237 https://hbr.org/2011/04/strategies-for-learning-from-failure.
238 Amy Edmondson. Learning from Mistakes Is Easier Said Than Done: Group and Organisation Influences on the Detection and Correction of Human Error // Journal of Applied Behavioral Science. Vol. 32. 1996. № 1. P. 5–28.
239 Sidney Dekker. Just Culture: Balancing Safety and Accountability. Burlington, VT: Ashgate, 2012.
240 Интервью взято автором.
241 Интервью взято автором.
242 Sidney Dekker. Just Culture.
243 https://hbr.org/2011/04/strategies-for-learning-from-failure.
244 Ben Dattner, Darren Dahl. The Blame Game. N. Y.: Free Press, 2012.
245 Baby P: The Untold Story, документальный фильм BBC TV.
246 http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/nov/18/comment-social-services-child-protection.
247 Ray Jones. The Story of Baby P: Setting the Record Straight (Bristol, UK: Policy Press, 2014).
248 Baby P: The Untold Story.
249 Ray Jones. The Story of Baby P.
250 http://andrewadonis.com/2012/10/09/social-work-needs-a-teach-first-revolution/.
251 http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1268433/In-hiding-mother-accused-abuse-cuddling-child.html.
252 Ray Jones. The Story of Baby P.
253 http://www.communitycare.co.uk/2009/10/19/care-applications-to-cafcass-continue-to-soar/.
254 Ray Jones. The Story of Baby P.
255 См.: Statistical Appendix to Office of National Statistics Report on Violent Crime and Sexual Offences.
256 Baby P: The Untold Story.
257 J. F. Christensen, W. Levinson, P. M. Dunn. The Heart of Darkness: The Impact of Perceived Mistakes on Physicians // Journal of General Internal Medicine. Vol. 7. 1992. № 4. P. 424–431.
258 T. D. Shanafelt, C. M. Balch, L. Dyrbye, et al. Special Report: Suicidal Ideation Among American Surgeons // Archive of Surgeons. Vol. 146. 2011. № 1.P. 54–62.
259 Baby P: The Untold Story.
260 Sidney Dekker. Just Culture.
261 Беседа с Брайаном Левершей.
262 Стюарт был признан виновным в том, что подверг опасности жизни пассажиров, но не в том, что подверг опасности жизни людей и здания на поверхности земли, – противоречие, которое отметило впоследствии Общество юристов.
263 http://picma.org.uk/sites/default/files/Documents/Events/Novem-ber%20Oscar%20article.pdf.
264 http://cpl.psy.msu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/Moser_Schroder_ Moran_et-al_Mind-your-errors-2011.pdf.
265 Carol I. Diener, Carol S. Dweck. An Analysis of Learned Helplessness: Continuous Changes in Performance, Strategy and Achievement Cognitions Following Failure // Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. Vol. 36. 1978. № 5. P. 451–462.
266 Готовится к публикации. Но см.: https://hbr.org/2014/11/how-compa-nies-can-profit-from-a-growth-mindset.
267 http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2009/0824/colleges-09-education-west-point-america-best-college.html.
268 http://www.west-point.org/parent/wppc-st_louis/Handbooks/2011-ParentCadetInfo.pdf.
269 Angela L. Duckworth. Christopher Peterson, M. D. Matthews, D. R. Kelly. Grit: Perseverance and Passion for Long-Term Goals. Revised for resubmission to the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (92). 2007. № 6. P. 1087–1101.
27 °Cм.: https://www.man.com/GB/cultivating-skill-in-a-world-lacking-ge-nius; Michael J Mauboussin. IQ versus RQ: Differentiating Smarts from Decision Making Skills; а также Joyce Ehrlinger, Carol S. Dweck. Understanding Overconfidence: Implicit Theories, Preferential Attention, and Distorted Self-assessment (готовится к публикации).
271 Karl Popper. The Logic of Scientific Discovery. L.: Routledge, 2002.
272 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-26359564.
27 3 Carol Dweck. The Role of Expectations and attributions in the Alleviation
of Learned Helplessness // Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. Vol. 31. 1975. April.
274 См. статью Barbara G. Licht and Carol S. Dweck в журнале Developmental Psychology (20). 1984. July. Этот вывод сочетается с тем, что мы узнали в пятой главе: эксперты с наибольшим авторитетом – в медицине, экономике, политике – больше всех боятся собственных ошибок и, скорее всего, попытаются их переосмыслить в свою пользу.
275 http://www.silicon-edge.com/blog/japan-has-problems-but-its-not-a-fear-of-failure.
276 http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/the-entrepreneurship-va-cuum-in-japan-why-it-matters-and-how-to-address-it/.
277 http://www.gemconsortium.org/assets/ uploads/1313079015GEM-_2009_Global_Report_Rev_140410.pdf.
278 http://gemconsortium.org/docs/download/3616.
279 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hIuoHm0ibfE.
280 http://www.oecd.org/pisa/keyfindings/pisa-2012-results-overview.pdf.
281 Jo Boaler. Mathematical Mindsets (готовится к публикации).
282 Там же.
283 http://mindsets-and-motivation-lab.commons.yale-nus.edu.sg/wp-con-tent/uploads/sites/39/2014/12/OKeefe-2013.pdf.
28 4 E. E. Jones, S. Berglas. Control of Attribution About the Self Through
Self-handicapping Strategies: The Appeal of Alcohol and the Role of
Underachievement // Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin. Vol. 4. P. 200–206.
285 https://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/06/health/06mind.html?_r=0.
286 Bryan Magee. Philosophy and the Real World: An Introduction to Karl Popper. Chicago: Open Court Publishing, 1985.
287 См.: Karl Popper. Conjectures and Refutations.
288 Но см. также: Karen Armstrong. Fields of Blood: Religion and the History of Violence. L.: Bodley Head, 2014.
289 Bryan Magee. Philosophy and the Real World.
290 Бэкон Ф. Новый Органон. Здесь и далее цит. в переводе С. Красильщикова.
291 Там же.
292 Там же.
293 Uncertain Truth, телепрограмма, в которой с Поппером беседу ет историк искусства Эрнст Гомбрих. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-VWcSiM9ZjoU.
294 Edwin M. Borchard. Convicting the Innocent and State Indemnity for Errors of Criminal Justice. Seattle: Justice Institute, 2013.
295 Еще один важный аргумент, высказанный мыслителем и предпринимателем Джимом Манци.
296 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rAP4E3EpedE.
297 Bryan Magee. Philosophy and the Real World.
298 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24393136.
299 http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/strategy/strategic_decisions_when_ can_you_trust_your_gut.